Calm before the storm

The recent collapse of the JLN in the Tasmanian Parliament has, bizarrely, strengthened Jeremy Rockliff’s premiership. His main opposition within the party, Treasurer Michael Ferguson, has been silenced and his main opposition outside of the party, Senator Jacqui Lambie, has made a humiliating retreat from Tasmanian politics.

He’s managed to secure a working agreement with four independents on confidence and supply, so he can weather most storms.

Which is good for him, because there’s a big one coming: the budget.

Tasmania’s finances are in a hole but without an effective opposition, what can be done? Usually when there are budget cuts, the government becomes more and more unpopular. Yet Rockliff’s popularity, while not soaring, is more favourable than anything that Labor can offer. And now with no Jacqui Lambie to answer to, he has a free run in the sun.

The problem for Tasmania is that the current government aren’t problem-fixers. They’re mostly problems. Without any decisive government program to get Tasmanian back on track, the next few years of this government will be a washout.